The Gaffe in Georgia's Gamble

World leaders were celebrating peace, unity and sportsmanship at the grand opening ceremonies of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, but deceit and betrayal were foremost in their minds. In the remote Eastern European state of South Ossetia, sinister plots were initiated as the world's attention was focused on the games; conducted by the minions of treachery and orchestrated by the congenital aggressors masquerading as defenders of human rights and democratic ideals. This duplicity wasted many lives and brought untold suffering to thousands more, but the unspeakable intent threatens to create tensions beyond the intensity of post war conflicts, that may cause irreparable damage to the fragile fabric of peace.

Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili ordered an attack on South Ossetia last August 7, in a bid to retake the largely independent but internationally unrecognized state. Georgian forces, trained and equipped by America, were ferried from their posts in Iraq by US ships - where they were given battle experience - to form the Georgian frontline. The attack elicited a response from Russian troops stationed in South Ossetia, whose presence as peacekeepers was ordained in 1992 by Edward Shevarnadze, and who subsequently assumed Georgia's Presidency in 1995. At the time, Abkhazia and South Ossetia were embroiled in widespread inter-ethnic violence and wars; with Russian support, both regions achieved de facto independence from Georgia.

The South Ossetians are hostile towards the government of Georgia, where differences in language, culture, and way of life are wide and deep. Their long violent history against Geogia reached its tipping point in 1989, and since then, tensions have always been at fever pitch. In 2004, Georgia under Saakashvili reasserted its authority in the southwestern autonomous Republic of Ajaria. This success encouraged Georgia to intensify efforts at taking back South Ossetia; but with Russia's open assistance, the effort failed. South Ossetians have embraced Russia and have been issued passports as Russian citizens. The attack therefore on South Ossetia on August 7, gave Russia the moral authority and obligation to intervene not just as peacekeepers - but to defend its citizens from hostile acts of war and annexation - and to cripple the enemy's capability to launch another offensive.

It is believed that Georgia would not behave so audaciously without the blessings of the west and its benefactor the United States. The Georgian military was strengthened through a series of reforms after the Rose Revolution, which deposed Shevarnadze in 2003 and elected Saakashvili as President. Of its 45,000 strong force, 12,000 were trained and equipped by America and fielded in Iraq as part of the coalition forces. But these forces were no match for the Russian presence which destroyed Georgia's military hardware and facilities in the 5 day battle; and severely weakened the morale of its soldiers. More than this, President Saakashvili may have lost all credibility in reasserting Georgian power in this Eastern European enclave.

Mikheil Saakashvili and his western backers grossly misjudged Russia's response to this aggression, and miscalculated the extent of the very thorough trashing of its forces and military equipment. He overplayed a weak position to begin with by attacking "Russian citizens", hoping the shadow of the US-NATO alliance would bluff Russia to acquiesce. He was dead wrong. He also failed to read the mindset of Russia's leaders where since the Orange Revolution in Ukraine resulting in that state's alliance with the west, Moscow made preparations to strengthen its political structures and systems - expecting this event to be exported to Russian soil. Moscow also saw fit to deem Ukraine and Georgia as hostile influences.

The West's response was to call a halt to "Russian Aggression" and flashed news of "1,500 deaths as Russia Bombs Georgia". The biased and slanted reporting and delicate formulation of stories creates impressions of Russia as the one taking the offensive. Photos of a burning apartment block that was missed by a bomb targeted for a military facility adds credence to the slant. But no photos of the devastation of South Ossetia's capital has been shown. The orchestration of the media has long been prepared by the west for this act of aggression, but the results on the ground are a lot different from what they expected. Russia rightly delayed accepting the ceasefire until they were in a stronger position from where they could dictate the terms. The US-Nato ploy has backfired.

Russia was very displeased when the US-Nato supported and recognized Kosovo's declaration of independence a few months back. The west celebrated the right of Albanians to declare their freedom and seek their own path of development away from Serbia. This event was in the back of Moscow's mind, and it bolstered its own argument for intervention in South Ossetia by using the wests's policy of allowing smaller ethnic groups to declare their freedom from a larger state, where ethnic differences and a long history of violent conflicts have no possibility of merging or consolidating as one. In addition, Russia sees the series of interventions by the west as encirclement of its own country, with the alignment of Ukraine, Georgia and Kosovo to the west, as well as the pincer approach to Iran from Afghanistan and Iraq - effectively cutting off the Caspian Sea - where oil supplies from the middle east by-pass Russia.

The US-Nato combine can move to expel Russia as a peacekeeper because it is a participant in the conflict, and acted as an aggressor. Moscow can counter that it did its job as peacekeeper by pushing back the real aggressor into the former boundaries prior to the conflict. If that fails, Russia can always claim to have defended its citizens from attack. The end game may result in a diplomatic stalemate but Russia has won this exchange. It has effectively demolished the Georgian military whose backers are still fighting on two fronts and cannot afford to antagonize a positioned bear ready to strike. Russia has also weakened Saakashvili, whose opponents may demand his resignation for the heavy price they'll have to pay for this mis-adventure.

The US-NATO combine will certainly pull back and limit themselves to diplomatic sound bytes on peace and liberty in an attempt to picture Russia as a hegemonist - then will scheme at a later date to orchestrate another offensive - all in the name of democracy and the western way of life. When in fact, it's oil that has always been the issue, and the control of supplies and reserves globally; to the point of waging war and induce savage acts of cruelty on hapless populations, all in the name of freedom, human rights and democratic ideals.

Haaarrrwwwwwk...Twoooooooph...Ting!

Bout Busted in Bangkok

The "Merchant of Death", regarded as the world's biggest illegal arms dealer was arrested by Thailand's police in Bangkok. Victor Bout, 41, a Russian who graduated from Moscow's Military Institute and known to be a Major in the KGB, is wanted for engaging in illegal arms trade in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, South America, Europe, and selling arms and weaponry to the Taleban and Al Qaeda. He is also the most prominent foreign business man known to be breaking UN embargoes on arms sales to Bulgaria, Slovakia, Ukraine and Krygyzstan. Bout was arrested on the strength of a US warrant issued by the Drug Enforcement Administration.

Victor Bout, who has the reputation as the "man who makes war possible", is believed to be the inspiration for Nicolas Cage's character in the 2005 film "Lord of War". In 2002, he evaded arrest stemming from a warrant issued by Belgium and interpol when he returned to Russia. The Russian Constitution protected him from extradition. He has also been investigated in several countries but has never been prosecuted for arms dealing. As implied in the movie, the illegal arms dealer is set free by the higher authorities of the very country that arrested him, primarily because these countries use him to sell arms to the enemies of their enemy in a war for wealth and profitable resources.

Bout speaks several languages and owns the largest private fleet of Soviet era cargo aircraft, obtained during the break-up of the Soviet Union. It is chillingly possible that he has also obtained and sold some of the former USSR's nuclear weapons and ICBMs to countries that are at odds with the western powers. Bout has denied performing illegal acts. How this arrest and seizure of his cargo in Thailand will play out deserves scrutiny. Trade offs and back room deals to prevent information leaks about involvement of other countries and their officials in sanctioning arms selling, could conceal the brutal truth about these transactions and the bloody trail of death, destruction and misery it leaves behind. Bout could certainly be out of the picture, but someone from the same mold will take his place.

Men like Victor Bout see only the profit in war. They are cognizant of the lust for power among leaders, that fuel the greed and plunder of nations; unmindful of the suffering, pain, dislocation, and psychological damage to the survivors and the generation of bitter orphans it produces. These are mere collateral damage for their objective of wealth and power acquisition. The trader in Victor Bout is focused on the transaction as a business agreement; and death, in all its savagery, brutality, and inhumanity is just an economic method where the tools of his trade are applied. That such men are protected by heads of powerful agencies of states is not surprising. The pursuit of power and the desire to dominate produces the worst of scoundrels even within nations that declare their adherence to democratic principles.

Haaaarrrrwwwwk...Twoooooph...Ting!

China's Colossal Capabilities

China's undisputed economic domination, harnessed from a workforce coming from more than a billion people, is now poised to transform its economic power into an equally potent military power. The Chinese, a proud and resilient race, always had a craving for power and recognition like all other nations that reached its current enviable status. And, they fully understand that power involves not only a strong economy, but a powerful military. They are cognizant of the ability of a strong economy to solve domestic problems, but are even more focused on its capacity to provide resources for military modernization and expansion.

China's military build-up began 16 years ago after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today, it has hundreds of advanced fighters; scores of submarines, frigates, and destroyers; continuously modernizes and expands its nuclear arsenal; and is fielding hundreds of theater range missiles. Estimates place China's attack submarines at 30, with 6 more being produced. By 2020, it will out-pace the United States in number of attack submarines. China's successful anti-satellite missile test in January 2007 is viewed by the US as a threat to America's spy satellites; and its proven range is capable of destroying 316 of the 528 international orbiters in space. Beijing has declared that the firing was not adversarial since it merely targeted an old US satellite for the test, but the US sees the achievement as a potential catalyst to a space arms race.

Pentagon has no accurate estimate of China's military spending because of its lack of transparency. However, a recent Pentagon report suggests that China also spent heavily on cyberware since it experienced "intrusions" suspected to originate from the Peoples Liberation Army. During these hacking instances, unclassified US military computer systems were broken into and succeeded in obtaining information. The same complaint was registered by the UK which believed China's state sponsored cyber terrorists conducted sustained attacks on Whitehall's vital computer networks. Both countries believe that China is building a cyber army trained to cripple computer systems of potential enemies, leaving them totally vulnerable during times of war or crisis. China has denied the allegations and asked the United States to abandon Cold War thinking.

Today, China voted with Russia in blocking a resolution introduced by western powers to put more pressure on Iran's defiance at pursuing a nuclear program. The potential for a realignment of natural allies (China and Russia) is gathering strength, and these two countries seem bent on adding to their number by supporting Iran's nuclear development for military use. All 3 countries are practically single party structures, with Russia's recent democratic elections being merely a facade for dictatorship. On the other hand, the United States is mired in internal squabbling among conservatives, liberals, libertarians, evangelicals, and so many other segments, pulling it in several directions and weakening its resolve.

If this trend continues, there is no stopping China from becoming the most powerful nation of earth; and all those who reside in the Asia-Pacific region had better start learning Fookienese and Mandarin to welcome the new Master of the World!

Haarrrwwwwk...Twoooooph...Ting!