Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Delays that may Damage and Divide Democrats

Barack Obama is ahead, but he cannot seal his victory. He has the funding and the momentum, but can't seem to spurt his way to a decisive triumph. Hillary Clinton is often on the edge of defeat but always manages to claw her way back in contention. After Pennsylvania, it is clear that neither of them will secure the nomination with 2025 delegates, and the Democrat selection process will drag on until August. This could be damaging for the Democrats in their attempt to retake the White House.

The enmity between these rival camps grow every day and with each approaching primary. Brickbats, accusations and negative portrayals of the other candidate are hurled by both sides, providing tremendous ammunition for the Republicans and dividing the party's voter base. Supporters of either candidate are developing deep seated bitterness that could take this rivalry to a condition that is beyond repair. At the end of the selection process, whoever is selected may alienate the supporters of the defeated candidate. The resulting bitterness may drive them not to support the Democratic candidate, not to vote at all, or worse, vote Republican. The healing and unification process may be more difficult than is normally believed.

The biggest factor that hinders an outright Obama nomination is obviously race. The Clinton's have raised this card early on and chances are the Republicans will do the same should he be the nominee. Conservative white America is just not too comfortable with a Black President. Surveys may show this to be minimal among whites but it could be deceptive since these respondents do not want to be seen as racists. Some may say they want a woman President, but the number of Black women voting for Hillary are in the minority, most are whites. This could indicate that the gender issue is a cover up for a race issue. Latinos and Hispanics opt for Hillary too supposedly on her close ties with this segment. But these voters may fear that Obama's concerns would skew towards blacks rather than Hispanics, advancing the issues of the African American race as against theirs. Again, this is a race issue.

The other major factor going against Obama is his inability to win over the blue collar workers. He projects the persona of an educated man that may be too elitist to grasp the needs of the non-college degree holding factory workers and employees. There is a disconnect in the attraction process that he has difficulty bridging. He has built his bandwagon on new, youthful, educated, voters made up of independents, young Democrats and former Republicans, but cannot win over the workers who are older than his yuppie followers. Same with the older voters 60 and above.

The younger voters are more open and accepting of ideas and are inclined to support the idealistic candidate that speaks their thirst for new politics, after being jaded by the Washington brand of power play. Factory workers are more skeptical, being at the receiving end of bad deals from lying educated lawyers, bureaucrats and politicians. They will not vote for a Black President because he doesn't
stand a chance. They'd rather go for the white, man or woman. People 60 and above,? They are conservative types and will go with the white woman too. Barack Obama's failure to connect with these segments may have something to do with race as well.

Hillary's game plan may be to drag the process until the convention with no clear winner, then barge into the nomination by collecting on past favors given to the super delegates. She may also expect Obama to get tired, make mistakes, or lose his cool and talk his way out of the nomination because he doesn't have the temperament of a stable leader; not tough enough to take the hard blows. But Hillary's credibility as a person is so badly damaged by her own embellishments that she has become uncomfortable to trust. The divisive tag given her by the GOP is proving to be true even among her party mates. Electability by virtue of experience or toughness by virtue of battles fought may no longer be the criteria for selecting a President come November. With all the lies that have been dumped on the American people in the last 7 years, trustworthiness may be the key element, as well as a new vision for approaching America's problems.

Obama is on the right track. All he has to do is maintain his composure and be unfazed by Hillary's repetitive rise from the depths of defeat. Hillary's predisposition to look at things in terms of conflict and confrontation, and her knack for doing better when in a crisis situation is chillingly dangerous. Anyone who is in confrontational mode and is good in handling crisis means America will always have a crisis, and will often be on the brink of a confrontation.



Carol said...

This is a very provocative and interesting Post. I have to agree with what you say, This is going to be an interesting ride that will all shake out come Novemeber.
Personally I wouldn't vote for either one and most certainly not for McCain. So that leaves..Ron Paul

Lord Nazh said...

"Conservative white America is just not too comfortable with a Black President."

Being conservative, white and living in America...

We aren't ready for Obama to be President, no matter what color he is (and he is indeed 'both' colors). His policies and actions will turn off white, conservative America far more than his race ever will.

The Fitness Diva said...

You're right on point regarding the Latino vote, Durano. With a few exceptions, most latinos would vote for a cricket before voting for a black anything. Racism is a mindset ingrained into them from way back, just like it is in America and anywhere else in the world.
Mexicans and blacks hate each other on the west coast, and in the south anywhere below Virginia, it's the same. In the north it's the Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Mexicans and Ecuadorians, etc, living a life that aspires more to whiteness and clannishness than fostering solidarity with other POC. They will always prefer to align themselves on the 'whiter' (and from what I see in New York, Asian...which in many circles is now seen as "just as good as") side of things, for better or for worse.

I'm not so sure for Obama right now. The long, drawn out pace of this thing has helped him to lose quite a bit of momentum.
Hillary just might be able to pull out those super delegates and take this thing.

I guess we'll just have to stay tuned! ;)

Anonymous said...

Let me say at the outset, I am a committed Republican and solidly, if somewhat reluctantly in the McCain camp. Your last paragraph about Clinton style confrontational politics is among the most insightful I have read. You are so right, the thought of another Clinton in the White House is frightening.

As to the comments from Fitness Diva, I guess since I am white, male, educated, Southern and very middle class, I have totally missed the racial divide between blacks and hispanics. Interesting.

Anonymous said...

Hey D:
You see from your commentary how exactly divided the melting pot really is....I think it's appropriate to consider all the political ramifications and the whole "I'd never vote for ...insert here....

I'm a bit of a pragmatist. I don't much care about race or gender and kind of come from a pseudo-utilitarian concept as I approach the polls this year....Are you better or worse off? Are you proud of your Country and why or why not?

I think we can trace the divisive nature of this campaign...yet I think that's largely academic...Anyone who bases their voting decision on race or gender only....I suppose have a right to such thoughts....but it seems simple-minded....I get the political spin doctors' but at some point we need to make a decision about our future based on something else than race/gender issues and more akin to how we can fix this ship!


Anonymous said...

I dont like Hillary. She emits the aura that Gloria Arroyo has. And with Gloria Arroyo being a classmate and longtime friend of husband Bill, it won't surprise me if Hillary's gameplan is being patterned after the Gloria model- never giving up against all odds and pulling surprises in the end.

And this thing to. That sniper slip was no product of fatigue. Nobody ever forgets incidents like that. Even soldiers will tell you that they dream about it, think about it and never forgets it, down to the smell of gun powder, the sound of crackling musketry and the screaming children.

There's no way that a rose can ever resemble a rifle. As a marksman, who has seen all types of rifles for the past 20 years, I know that for a fact.-- Done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Carol,

Thanks for the kind words.

The selection of the Democrat nominee will definitely be the job of the super delegates. If Obama still leads in number of delegates and on the popular vote,yet Hillary manages to "collect" from the super delegates, it would be the most undemocratic process of all. This could really divide the party.

The Libertarian Ron Paul is a good choice, too bad he lacked popular support and funding too. He is, pound for pound, a lot more capable and deserving than John McCain. America needs better choices. :-) --Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Lord Nazh,

It is very difficult to govern in a country where the conservatives and the liberals, both moving forces in American politics, are unceasingly suspicious or wary of the intent behind the policies and programs of the other.

In the case of Obama, if his policies and actions are unacceptable to white conservative Americans, either as a matter of substance or an incidence of political aggrupation; his being non-white will certainly magnify this rejection. :-) --Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Fitness Diva,

I have known the reality of the Latinos, Hispanics, and unfortunately a significant if not a majority of Asians who would rather be identified with, and align themselves to, whites. There are the younger people who dress, sing, act, and move like their rap idols and who have a preference for identifying with African Americans though.

In the Presidential elections, an Obama nomination will likely see a majority of Latinos and Hispanics switching to the GOP. Asian Americans I'm not so sure. The younger ones could still stick with Obama. This is one of Hillary's aces which she could scare the super delegates with. :-)--Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi RSKirk55,

To the Hispanics and Latinos, going to America and being in America is living the life of the White American which they see in films, magazines, and read in romance books. The identification with whites becomes even stronger when they form communities because the race issue, up to now, has largely been limited by the narrow divides of blacks and whites.

Thus, in pushing for their agenda, they have to disengage from this limiting definition by raising their own issues as a race different from the issues of the African Americans. Being expressly closer to whites makes them feel that their issues will find support and acceptance. :-) --Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Tommy,

I agree with your approach Tommy. One, it recognizes that there's something wrong with the ship; two, it does not put blame on who was the first to cause the damage and who took the blame and all that silly and childish finger pointing; three, it doesn't preclude that the fixer of the problem should be male or female, black white, brown, red, or yellow; four, it doesn't matter if the solution will come from a Democrat, Republican, Conservative, Liberal, Left Winger extremist, Right Winger extremist, libertarian.

This is the kind of pragmatism that America needs and which most will support if not unite under. If only you could replicate yourself 300 million times. :-) --Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi JC,

There is a lot of similarity between them, along the very same terms of how you have described it. You are not the only one I've read and heard state it in this way.

Her embellishments are so thick faced it can only project her as the twin of GMA. They even have the same hairdo and choice of clothes, well most of the time - pantsuits.

We may be guilty of projecting GMA on Hillary, but I don't think it's unjustified. :-)--Durano, done!

Anonymous said...

Great work here my friend, this is so very true.
A few weeks ago, I would loved to have seen Hillary beaten by Barack because she seemed to have such a sense of entitlement about the Democratic nomination. So now, the shoe is completely on the other foot.

And as my friend Carol
'It's going to be a interesting ride that will all shake out come Novemeber'

Anonymous said...

I personally favor Obama... that said, I won't be disappointed unless McCain wins!

I sometimes think the rivalry between Obama and Clinton is going too far. This doesn't help the Democrats... I believe in the "together we stand, divided we fall" motto. This animosity (to put it mildly) could backfire at them.

Good post!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi DD2,

It's dragging too long this nomination process and all that money spent just to see both candidates say and do more of the same thing could be used for more productive purposes and positive efforts.

It's turning out to be interesting no matter who McCain will face in November. It's supposed to be a Democrat year but I'm beginning to have a lot of doubts about whether these Democrats can get their act together.

McCain may just walk away with the Presidency and they (Democrats)only have themselves to blame. Stay cool! :-) --Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Zhu,

Obama is the choice of most Third World citizens who are following the US Elections. His African, Asian, and even European roots have given him that much acceptance.

His problem as I see it would be his associations with certain groups past and present which the Republicans would be foolish not to raise as valid issues.

His other problem is his inability to take criticism and just roll with it. He seems to be sensitive to criticism, typical of the young and the inexperienced political fighter who is not used to taking blows that would hurt an ordinary man's ego.

The in-fighting and bitterness that develops may may them fail to consolidate, and this could lead to the defeat of the Democrats in November, whoever is nominated. :-) --Durano, done!