Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Giuliani's Gameplan Glitch

Rudy Giuliani's game plan would have been a stroke of genius, a tactical maneuver intended to concentrate his efforts and strengths on his strongest points, poised at the weakest spot of his rivals. The plan had the elements of Sun Tzu written all over it, and Giuliani stuck to the plan believing that the gamble will pay off big time. But the time line between the Iowa caucus and the Florida primary generated various events that rendered the game plan outdated, and cast Giuliani as irrelevant. Addressing his supporters possibly for the last time, Rudy Giuliani's crowd came to a funeral; and as he spoke of his campaign in the past tense, he was in effect, delivering its eulogy.

Rudy hedged everything he had on Florida. A win here would have given him 57 delegates plus the momentum the expected victory would generate that could catapult him on February 5th to the nomination. It would be a big triumph and a magnetizing band wagon pull. He campaigned for more than 50 days and spent nearly $1million weekly to consolidate support in a state that had all the key factors for a Republican nomination: conservatives, hispanics, moderates, among others. Banking on his lead in the National polls, he assumed that he could avoid the early primaries where he had no chance of winning, and that these contests would not produce a clear front runner anyway. But the state to state roll of the primaries elicited 2 main contenders that made him traverse other states limply; and saw his political capital erode like the funds of Societe Generale' portfolio of fraudulent transactions.

Rudy also campaigned as a moderate to liberal Republican, but his support of abortion, gay rights, gun control, his personal lifestyle, did not sit well with conservatives. In addition, his entire persona was built around his leadership and character during the 9/11 bombing, however, these were overtaken by the economy issue which 47% of worried Republicans found most important. This negated his legendary, if not celebrity status, to irrelevance.

This is the end of the line for Rudy Giuliani. He is expected to endorse the candidacy of his friendliest rival John McCain within the week. The glitch in the plan involved not having solutions for unforeseen events or potential plan busters. There were no contingencies, the only thing that mattered was Florida; which does not speak well of his planning and management skills. As he calmly spoke of the debacle in positive terms, in "good bye" rather than "get going" tones, in one the more luxurious hotels along the glitzy boulevard in Orlando; Rudy Giuliani woke up to a nightmare, in this boulevard of broken dreams.



Anonymous said...

You're right, Giuliani was taken too much by his plan. But he also had limited resources that hindered him from campaigning in other states.

I guess rather than rewriting the book on primary campaigns, he will now have to be the cartoon character in its comic book version.

durano lawayan said...

Anonymous, his strategy made him disappear from the voters' radar screens, coupled with the ensuing events, he became an anachronism.

He wasted the chance and the momentum he had built. His story will be a classic example of how not to run a campaign. --Durano, done!

Anonymous said...

Rudy needs to get a NEW Campaign manager.

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

That's an understatement DD2. For what election? Certainly not this 2008 Presidential one. Perhaps in the 2010 mid-term elections. --Durano, done!