Friday, January 4, 2008

Obama Overwhelms Opponents; Mike Makes Mincemeat of Mitt

The first leg of the race for their party's nomination is done. Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee winning for the Democrats and Republicans respectively, in what is a significant victory for both presidential aspirants.

Mitt Romney spent millions on TV ads in addition to staying in Iowa the longest, Mike Huckabee hardly spent for TV ads and romped away with 34% of the party's caucus goers from a record of 114,000 people taking part, as compared to 2004 where only about 87,666 participated. Romney collected 25% of the votes, a far second considering the exposure he created for himself. In his attempt to assuage supporters, he said they won the silver and that's not so bad. The Republican race was decided on the basis of faith and values, which prompted Huckabee to say that "what matters is the people, not the purse".

Between Obama, Edwards, and Clinton, TV ad spending is estimated at US $19 million. Of the huge voter turnout of 236,00 as compared to 2004 at 125,000, Obama obtained 38%, Edwards 30%, and Clinton 29%. Clinton said the turnout is a clear indication of a Democrat Presidency in the next election and restated her theme that she is ready to fight and ready to lead. Edwards vowed to continue the fight for their party's nomination and is eying a win in New Hampshire. For his part, Barack Obama spoke as if he won the nomination by saying "we are one nation, one people, and our time for change has come. For the Democrats, change was the key point in the vote, and they preferred Obama's type of change as against Edwards' confrontational method; and Hillary's experienced change from within, the least. Ironically, Obama won over Clinton on the women votes, and garnered roughly 40% of first time caucus goer votes. Edwards did well at second in Polk County where Des Moines is, which he topped in 2004, while Clinton won in the northern most parts of Iowa where the more conservative voters in Iowa reside.

Huckabee is estimated to win 30 delegates for this win, Romney will get 7. For the Democrats, its much narrower. Obama will win 16 delegates, Clinton 15, and Edwards 14. The fewer votes for the second placer are a result of the Democrats' complicated caucus voting. In the overall race for the nomination, Clinton still leads with 175 delegates, Obama has 75, and Edwards has 46.

For both Republicans and Democrats, Iowa is not a representative sample of the country's voting population in terms of size, mentality, nor temperament. Here, Republican caucus goers are largely more conservative than their counterparts at the national level. Over 50% of voters described themselves as born again evangelicals, which is a major factor in giving Huckabee a big advantage. Democrat caucus goers, on the other hand looked toward a fresh change.With Clinton being viewed as a 90's remnant and Edwards a second timer, the freshest candidate was undoubtedly Obama, and they voted for him.

Significant for Huckabee is the fact that he could now attract the big money to match Romney's seemingly limitless supply, for the long, long road to the nomination. For Obama, what is significant is the creation of a trend among women voters, black voters, and progressive groups. A couple more wins and a trend could be established. As it is, by way of numbers, Hillary's lead in delegates is quite formidable, and both have the means for the costly run to the nomination. Edwards second place finish may attract some cash, but may not be competitive in an expensive campaign.

The critical area for the Democrats is the inclusion of real issues that affect America and the concerns that a new President will have to face. These issues and concerns must be addressed in the contest for the rest of the primaries. Its boring tedious, and meaningless to keep hearing the same rhetoric that is devoid of substance and realistic basis. The level of discussions must go beyond this senseless idiocy that likens them to a bunch of people with mental disabilities.

On a different note, it would be nice to see how Saint Romney would recast his flip flopping image and how effectively Mike Huckabee can project Faith and Values when his past actions contradict what he allegedly represents.

On the Democrat fence, the much vaunted resilience of the Clintons bear watching, unless it wrinkles away in limbo. Or, if her motherly strength comes to the fore which was quite late in Iowa. Edwards is on second and has possibly thrown even the kitchen sink in Iowa. His expected collapse, coming in huffing and puffing in Iowa, may be seen after 2 or 3 more contests. For Barack Obama, who must have a lot to be thankful to Oprah for, it would be interesting to see how white he can become.



DD2 aka Debonair Dude said...

That was a very good start, one down One to go..
2 strikes and shes out!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Dude, you're too serious. Lighten up a bit. Smile, grin widely, laugh out loud! You have won a big battle. Scan the horizon for the next victory! --Durano, done!

Tapline said...

The one to watch is Fred.....I think he has a message that rings true with the American people, but the MSM will have to get on the bandwagon and I don't think they will. My latest blog refers bloggers to Gayle's blog and a video. That says it all.....stay well.....