Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Delirious over Democrat Developments

Anyone involved in some way with the Democratic Party's primaries is a glutton for punishment. It is comparable to a masochist who demands more whipping until the flesh is torn from the bones, and the happier he is for it. Why else should one suffer the same old rhetoric, hear embellished stories, applaud at the baby step movements of a campaign that since February 5 has been destined to be decided by the so-called super delegates? It is tiresome and boring with the same anti-climaxes, same demographics, same commentaries, exit polls, and promised victory speeches. This is like being forced to watch an Ed Wood film several times continuously until you're brain dead.

However, everyone looks and sounds delirious. The candidates, the campaigners and supporters, and even the media, who have been mouthing the same things for over 3 months they begin to stammer at their own words groping for new ways of saying the same things. The Republicans are delirious too at seeing the democrats tear each other apart and risk disintegration, giving John McCain an edge to snatch the Presidency. Hillary's only hope is to gather a big chunk of mud to throw at Barack's clean image to guarantee her the eye of the super delegates. Barack's chances rest on the disenfranchisement of Michigan and Florida delegates. But there is absolutely nothing significant about these Democrat primaries.

What is significant is the victory of Don Cazayoux over Woody Jenkins in Louisiana's 6th district which the Republicans controlled for 3 decades. Twenty six other retiring Republicans plus other districts bring a total of 50 vulnerable Republican positions in peril. This could mean Democrat control of Congress. And, despite linking Cazayoux to Obama, the impact did not change a Democrat victory. This, coming after Bill Foster's successful campaign to replace Republican Dennis Hastert in Illinois 2 months ago. Cazayoux won on issues about better paying jobs, affordable health care, and better education - issues related to the economy. The economic situation is not expected to be better come November and this is leading to a trend towards a "Change Election".

What is significant is the impact of the economy on the majority of Americans and how Hillary has re-branded herself as the blue collar champion while tagging Obama as an Ivy League snob, when she is the rich former First Lady and he raised on charity. Significant too is the fact that Obama won overwhelmingly in North Carolina despite the expected fallout from Rev. Jeremiah Wright's crazed oratory and subsequent TV appearances. Also, the emergence of a more consolidated bloc of Latinos and Hispanics flexing their influence on the electoral process, as well as the massing of black voters in support of their candidate. Critical for the Democrats is the reunification of these blocs of supporters after a bitterly fought insignificant primary. Current trends point towards another disintegration.

What is significant for the Republicans is the weakness of their brand represented by the outgoing President Bush and the Party's standard bearer John McCain. A weaker voter turnout for t
he Republican primaries is also a significant concern, together with the rejection of the McCain brand by its conservative base. The strongest asset of the GOP brand is his position and experience in War but which is now opposed by 68% of Americans. His position on easing ethanol use is weak since it represents only 1.5% of increases in food prices. His current advantage has not made any concrete gains for his candidacy and is languishing under the shadow of the Democrat candidates. His courtship of the Latino and Hispanic blocs is a most significant move, as it may steal the thunder from the Democrats if the break-up at the DNC becomes inevitable.

These developments reveal that the GOP brand must be strengthened in substance and odor, and repackaged for the worsening economic situation. When the pinch of high prices turn to jabs, and food on the table becomes meager, who will recall who was ducking imaginary bullets or screaming mad against America. Besides, guilt by association is a weak argument. It does not make Republicans in Congress men's room sex solicitors nor page chasers simply because they associate with one. Nor does it make Democrats patrons of expensive prostitutes. Also, who'll care? It's food, jobs, and health - these are what's significant. And the sooner the GOP uses it's resources to build on these concerns rather than focus on character assassination, the more responsible leaders they will appear to be and be more credible to the electorate.

President Bush has brought the Republican brand
down to the gutters, and Republican supporters calling the opposing candidates names is the pot calling the kettle black. Unconvincing.and childish. The party that closes ranks solidly has a stronger chance. McCain must have a young running mate with strong economic credentials and acceptable to conservatives, to offset his weakness on the economy and his advanced age. A combined Obama/Hillary or Hillary/Obama team would consolidate the Democrats immediately. It's likelihood is doubtful, but recognizing its significance is crucial for the Democrats and America itself.

The predisposition to magnify shallow developments to project momentum, creates the tendency to overlook significant factors that bear on the most critical longer term objective - what citizens need and what is good for the nation. The blurring of what is significant with what is inconsequential would be the undoing of the American political system.



Debbie said...

I agree with you on some points and disagree on others. McCain is completely offensive to Conservatives. This election year would have been pure pablum if not for the infighting among Democrats.

Hillary seemed to accept her fate today, although she didn't show it in her speech. Something about her body language.

Debbie Hamilton
Right Truth

Tapline said...

Brad, Excellent post. As with Debbie, I agree with some points and not on some others. McCain has some strong points and some very weak ones. He is against drilling for oil, and new refineries, He is for open borders and recently, from what I gather from reading other blogs, agreed to attend a La Raza "the race" conference in July. This has really got the Conservative base up in arms...stay welll...

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Debbie,

The infighting among Democrats made them look really vulnerable. There are several areas of attack opened against them because of their foolish display of brick bats and dirt.

What I saw was the facial expression of Chelsea, she was almost breaking down and in near tears. That was the face of one realizing inevitable defeat if I saw one. Word is that Hillary may quit. She should, but I have doubts she will. :-) --Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Tapline,

I have seen how McCain's positions contradict those of the conservatives. I don't see how he can change that now, except perhaps to get a running mate who might be seen as tempering McCain's previous statements with reasoned restraint.

I have yet to see a conservative blog site that supports McCain, with the exception of course of our friend DD2.

Even media personalities speak out against him, and thats radio, TV, and print. That's why DD2 is calling out support for him in almost everyone of his posts. :-) --Durano, done!

Anonymous said...

You said "A combined Obama/Hillary or Hillary/Obama team would consolidate the Democrats immediately. It's likelihood is doubtful,"

I don't buy that.
In fact I'm sure we are going to see it.
Don't beleive the hype

Anonymous said...

And I agree 100 percent with what Debbie said.

The so called loyal Conservatives, as I chose to call them are acting like school kids.
When they wake up to a pres. Obama, maybe then they will realize it.
But of course it will be too late.
Every pres. has some strong points and some weak ones.
Live with it.

Kim said...

excellent update Durano !!
though I'm not following this campaign on a daily's good to read your opinions on the progress...
I'm afraid...just keeping up with the news on our government is more than enough to cope with...
including the recent conviction of an ex labour MP...who will be sentenced today !!

Zhu said...

I love reading about the campaign but two things are bothering me.

First of all, it focuses too much on 'small things' in my opinion (such as candidates extensive background etc) and not enough on the big issues... like the economic crisis, the war(s) etc. Gee, it's about leading a country, it's not a pageant contest!

Second, I find the pre-campaign a bit too long...

Anyway, good analysis.

I finally added you to my blogroll (about time!) -- you will find your blog in my "the world" section ;)

Tommy said...

It's politics and the reality is that it will always be. McCain has significant problems with the core Republican base as Debbi and others have mentioned. He has significant problems everywhere really. It may in fact turn out to be a Rush drug addict approach played by the Republicans and McCain is just the guy they have to trot out to get thumped. I kind of doubt that though. I have a hard time believing he doesn't still manage a significant number of base votes. Is the medication worse than the disease? That's the real question. Can Republicans sit back and take a 4 spot or more with Obama? Perhaps. Maybe it's a "rebuilding year." Maybe the strategy is for 12 and beyond. Might as well get working on it I guess.

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi DD2,

If the bitterness and divisiveness illustrated by both camps is indeed a hype, they're certainly putting up a convincing show. While it is totally un-entertaining, if not outright ridiculous, both camps have engaged in this infighting to the point of self-destruction, something typically Democrat. Or is this their idea of Democracy in action? :-)

You're right about all presidents having strong and weak points and that everyone should live with it. That would apply to anyone who was elected, Republican or Democrat. The point is, if the candidates are weak on areas that matter to the people most, even if overall he/she would make the best president of the lot, it will not translate to a victory. Or if within a party, segments have conflicting agendas, disunity and inevitable defeat may be the outcome.

It's tough managing an office where interest groups have become very strong and influential that they can pressure government to move in their favor even if it goes against the grain of what is good for the greater majority. Small wonder that the President ages tremendously after the first 4 years. Why they would want a second term is beyond me. :-)--Durano done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hello Kim,

I also can't bring myself to write about the US elections on a daily basis, because it sounds repetitive. It is actually similar to an extended joke that has been explained and analyzed 10 times and retold to the dense listener. If that elicits a laugh, you can gauge how ignorant the listener is or how dumb the joke is.

Since there are other events that warrant more analysis and discussion,also because they involve international politics, economics,and human interest, I choose to move in that direction.

So a conviction of an ex-labour MP is due today eh? That's quite a lofty position to be caught, tried and convicted with anything. Although I get a whiff of a connection to someone I know.

I'll take a peek at the news from Aussieland today. :-) --Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Zhu,

My sentiments exactly! It's long repetitive, and boring - and does not focus on what concerns it's citizens. Well,in a slight indirect way perhaps - but more on personality, associations, race and color, campaign funds, or other minor things.

It's so inconsequential that they tend to miss certain developments they should strengthen or capitalize on. I refer to both parties.

A lot of it are speculations, accusations, twisting of the other's statements - nothing of substance that is concerned with depth in global events or the economy, education, and competitiveness of the country in trade and commerce.

The wranglings on both sides, even in blogsites, is a reflection of their forceful mental make up and rigidity of their attitudes based on their chosen beliefs. It's a country difficult to unify and to please,much less manage effectively.

Thanks for adding me on your blogroll. As an expression of thanks, I will invite Sting to Boracay and send you the brochures so you can come and watch him on one of the most beautiful beaches in the world. :-)--Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Tommy,

You may have a point there about getting McCain out to be thumped, then spend the next 4 years rebuilding - sounds plausible. Also, they may be willing to sacrifice McCain as long as it's not Hillary who gets elected.

Obama, they might have a chance to beat being non-white; and even if he wins, being a newcomer, they could run rings around him and totally destroy the credibility of Obama and the Democratic Party itself after 4 years.

But as you say, politics will always be politics, and the question there really a difference whoever wins, Democrat or Republican? :-) --Durano, done!

Jackson said...

I was going to add you to my blogroll until you stated that anything good for America comes out of the Democratic party. Pah-ting...

upyours said...

Hey jackson,
How big a privilege is it to be added to your blogroll? Your blogspot is EMPTY!!!!!
At least put something in it. Come on, give us a glimpse of your true color.

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Jackson,


Whoever you are, what with a blog that has no posts and no profile, I think you are quoting the wrong person. I never said any such thing.

And oh, it's okay if you don't add me to your blogroll, I don't want ot be first in an empty site. :-) --Durano, done!

durano lawayan a.k.a. brad spit said...

Hi Upyours,

Friend of yours? :-)

Or maybe we are being Big Brothered? :-)--Durano, done!